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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.