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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."